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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 98.6%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 1.4%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 98.6%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 79.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 19%.CICC: The CPI of the United States rose as scheduled in November, but it did not hinder the interest rate cut. CICC released a research report saying that the CPI and core CPI of the United States both rose to 0.31% in November, which was basically in line with the market and its expectations. For the post-election policies, if the immigration and tariff policies are too radical, it will bring pressure to inflation at the end of next year, which will have an impact on the market and even the mid-term elections. Therefore, before the mid-term elections, due to the "realistic constraints" of inflation, the inflation policy will be faster, but the scope may be limited, while the growth policy will be faster, and then the overall assets will still be positive. According to the difference between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate, CICC estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be two or three interest rate cuts in 2025, with the end point of interest rate cut at 3.5-3.75% and the center corresponding to long-term US debt at 3.8-4%.Bank of Brazil: The agent's views on recent financial announcements have significantly affected asset prices and expectations, especially risk premium, inflation expectations and exchange rate.

Trump's nominated director of NASA said that his future mission of cooperating with SpaceX would be put on hold. On December 11th, local time, jared Isakman, the director of NASA nominated by US President-elect Trump, said that his future private astronaut mission planned to cooperate with SpaceX of elon musk might be put on hold. Isaac Mann said that the future of the Polaris Project is still a "question mark".Brazil raised the benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points to 12.25%. Brazil's central bank expects the next two meetings to raise interest rates by the same amount.The Jehad delegation will discuss the exchange of detainees with Israel. On the night of 11th local time, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jehad) said that the delegation including its Secretary-General Zeyad Nahara had arrived in Cairo. The delegation will discuss the latest progress of the agreement on the exchange of detainees with Israel and the ways to provide assistance to the Gaza Strip.

Market News: The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution by an overwhelming majority, demanding an immediate and unconditional permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.The onshore RMB closed at 7.2615 yuan against the US dollar at night, down 124 points from Tuesday's night closing. The turnover was $57.609 billion.The pumped storage capacity of State Grid in operation exceeds 40 million kilowatts. Today (12th), with the full commissioning of Zhen 'an Pumped Storage Power Station in Shaanxi Province, the installed capacity of pumped storage in operation of State Grid Corporation exceeded 40 million kilowatts, accounting for about 70% of the pumped storage power stations in operation in China. After 15 days of trial operation, Unit 4 of Shaanxi Zhen 'an Pumped Storage Power Station was successfully put into operation today, marking the full commissioning of the pumped storage power station.